Russia is scared

It is becoming more and more apparent that the hostility of Russian government towards Estonia is mostly based on fear of recognising the Russian occupation of Estonia and its role in the aftermath of WWII. As today’s The Economist also opines, facing the fact that Estonia was forcibly occupied by the Soviet Union is going not only to destroy the self-image that Putin has been trying hard to build for the Russian nation, it would “also justify Estonian and Latvian policies on citizenship and open the way for financial compensation and territorial claims against Russia.” There is genuine possibility that, in case Russia ends up with taking at least part of the blame for the activities of the Soviet Union in the Baltic countries, but also in other places, this would be devastating for them. Sometimes the truth is difficult to handle, and we cannot be sure that the Russian public wants to hear the truth, but would rather believe in the invention that Estonia and a bunch of other countries were pleased to enter into the brotherhood of nations that was the USSR, that being under the “enlightened” Soviet occupation was the best thing that could happen to these poor and undeveloped countries.

The thing about lies is that once you begin lying, you cannot really stop. You have to look at all events through your distorting glasses, you need to have a propaganda machine that is ready to distort the facts and keep to the party line. And you have to silence those who put ahead an alternate view or uncover facts that cannot really be explained away so easily.

What happens if there is a small country that does not want to be silent? You have tried economic sanctions and double import tariffs, which surely would have brought them to “the correct view”, but they did not work. That country reoriented its economy to the West and therefore was opened to tremendous economic growth. You tried to fund pro-Russian political movements loyal to Russia, but those ended up getting less than 1% of the vote in last elections. You tried to make a deal with the biggest party in Estonia, but that party was forced out of government after elections and is now facing the wrath of the most of the electorate (the party’s leader installed himself as the mayor of Tallinn, but already more than 50 000 signatures have been gathered for him to step down).

You cannot break of economic relations, because the country belongs to the EU, which is a single market, and you cannot break off relations with your greatest trading partner. You cannot really turn off gas, because this would also bring EU economic retaliation (or then they would use some other energy sources). You might be also worried that the country and its allies are used for the transit of Russia’s oil to the West. If the Baltic countries make it more difficult to transport oil through their territory, this would have consequences for your fragile economy.

So, all that you can do is spew rhetoric and threaten with breaking off relations, sanctions, military action, and other measures. But no one takes you seriously, because they can see through your bluff (or can it be called bluffing if it is so obvious).

In the end, the sooner Russia recognises its history and begins acting like a normal country, the sooner it can recover: economically, politically. Free, stable and democratic Russia is in the interests of everyone.